Actuarial Aging Rates in Human Cohorts

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Leonid A. Gavrilov^1,2,a* and Natalia S. Gavrilova^1,2

¹NORC at the University of Chicago, 60637 Chicago, IL, USA

²Institute for Demographic Research, Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 109028 Moscow, Russia

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed.

Received August 1, 2023; Revised October 8, 2023; Accepted October 9, 2023

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Aging rate is an important characteristic of human aging. Attempts to measure aging rates through the Gompertz slope parameter lead to a conclusion that actuarial aging rates were stable during the most of the 20th century, but recently demonstrate an increase over time in the majority of studied populations. These findings were made using cross-sectional mortality data rather than by the analysis of mortality of real birth cohorts. In this study we analyzed historical changes of actuarial aging rates in human cohorts. The Gompertz parameters were estimated in the age interval 50-80 years using data on one-year cohort age-specific death rates from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). Totally, data for 2,294 cohorts of men and women from 76 populations were analyzed. Changes of the Gompertz slope parameter in the studied cohorts revealed two distinct patterns for actuarial aging rate. In higher mortality Eastern European countries actuarial aging rates showed continuous decline from the 1910 to 1940 birth cohort. In lower mortality Western European countries, Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and USA actuarial aging rates declined from the 1910th to approximately 1930th cohort and then increased. Overall, in 50 out of 76 populations (68%) actuarial aging rate demonstrated decreasing pattern of change over time. Compensation effect of mortality (CEM) was tested for the first time in human cohorts and the cohort species-specific lifespan was estimated. CEM was confirmed using cohort data and human cohort species-specific lifespan estimates were similar to the estimates obtained for the cross-sectional data published earlier.

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KEY WORDS: aging, mortality, compensation effect of mortality, species-specific lifespan, aging rate

DOI: 10.1134/S0006297923110093

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